Daily Forecast

SHORT TERM

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

INITIAL FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT BRINGS
PLENTY OF COLD AIR WITH IT AS 700 MB TEMPS DROP TO LESS THAN 0C ALONG
THE WY BORDER MONDAY MORNING...OVER 10 DEGREES C OF COOLING. STRONG
PREFRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. HOWEVER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT LATER INTO THE NIGHT. MOST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. AND THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR UPSTREAM OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. SO HAVE LOWERED THE ALREADY MEASLY POPS FOR JUST A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTH.
DRY ELSEWHERE. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...AND
CONTINUED WINDS WILL KEEP MOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST...BUT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY...HIGH TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 20 DEGREES F OVER THE NORTH...AND AROUND
10 DEGREES F OVER THE SOUTH...FOR A CRISP AUTUMN-LIKE DAY.

THEN WITH VERY STABLE AND NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES MONDAY NIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE COLDEST
READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO WILL POSSIBLY SEE WIDESPREAD FROST. HAVE EXPANDED THE
FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE COLORADO ZONE 8...MAINLY EAST OF GLENWOOD
SPRINGS...AND COLORADO ZONE 14.

THE FLOW WILL BECOMES SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RELOADS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS PATTERN IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR A RETURN
OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG-TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: THE EUROPEAN MODEL LED THE WAY WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FOR THESE PERIODS. NOW THE NAM AND GFS
ARE ON BOARD TOO. PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGE TO OVER ONE INCH IN THE
FOUR CORNERS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS UP INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. TUESDAY
NIGHT POPS MAY BE RAISED WITH WARM ADVECTION PROVIDING LIFT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: STRONGER SW-NE ORIENTED JET WORKS
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS USHERS IN A DRIER AIRMASS QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE DRY COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. IF FUELS ARE STILL DRY AFTER THE WEDNESDAY
SHOWERS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY IS NOT AS COLD AS THE TROUGH PASSING
LATE TONIGHT. 700 TEMPS DROPPING TO 3C ACROSS THE NORTH.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: A GENERALLY FLAT W-E FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. WILL BRING COOL MORNINGS AND BREEZY AND SUNNY
AFTERNOONS. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST THAT WILL WORK INLAND EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHEAST UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY AT 300 PM MOST AREAS
OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ARE EXPERIENCING WINDS AND
HUMIDITY WITHIN RED FLAG CRITERIA. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 900 PM WHEN THE RED
FLAG WARNING EXPIRES. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AT AROUND 15,000FT MSL WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY SEVERE TURBULENCE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE I-70
CORRIDOR. MOUNTAIN TOP WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
SURFACE GUSTS...WINDS ALOFT...AND TURBULENCE WILL DIMINISH AFTER
06Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY UNTIL 9 PM MDT...FOR
      COLORADO FIRE ZONES 201...203...205 AND 207.
     FREEZE WATCH MONDAY NIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM FOR
      ZONES 1...2...5...8 AND 14.
UT...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY UNTIL 9 PM MDT...FOR
      UTAH FIRE ZONES 428...429...430...442...443 AND 444.

$$

SHORT TERM.....E