Daily Forecast

SHORT TERM

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

OVERNIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FINALLY ENDED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MIXING CONTINUED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS
PAST MIDNIGHT WHICH HELPED FLUSH MUCH OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING WITH THE TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING SO
EXPECT ONLY PATCHY MORNING FOG AT BEST.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES OVER UTAH TODAY...WESTERN
COLORADO TONIGHT...AND ONTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AFTER A COLD
START THIS MORNING...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE THURSDAY HIGHS. THEN ANOTHER 3-5 SATURDAY TO FINALLY BE BACK
NEAR NORMAL.

00Z AND 06Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DIGGING THE NEXT PACIFIC
LOW SE THRU NEVADA ON SATURDAY AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FOUR-
CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS IN ON
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING OVER THE EASTERN UTAH
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. SFC-700MB CONVERGENT FEATURE FORMS OVER
SE UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THERE. WESTERN
COLORADO DEVELOPS AN UNFAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC EAST FLOW FOR LOWER
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

.LONG-TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF...NAM AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE STORM WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM. MODELS
ALSO SHOWED GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH INCREASED FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL BE UNDER BEST DYNAMIC LIFT
SUNDAY AS THE STORM CENTER DROPS INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA. NICELY
WRAPPED SYSTEM ENHANCED BY JET DIVERGENCE ON ITS NORTHEAST QUADRANT
PROMISES WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND BOOSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. TOP DOWN ANALYSIS SUGGESTED ONSET OF AFTERNOON RAIN FOR
THE FOOTHILL COMMUNITIES OF THE SAN JUANS DURING THE DAY WHICH POSES
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON SNOW DRAINAGE ISSUES. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL PICK UP MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AND MODEL GUIDANCE
POINTS TOWARD ADVISORY EVENT SO NO WATCH FORTHCOMING ON THIS SHIFT.

AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...LIFT
AND MOISTURE DECREASES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. STILL ENOUGH
LIFT AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS...WEST ELK AND SAWATCH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE PUTS AN END TO PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER CARRYING OVER INTO TUESDAY.

12Z WED GFS SHOWED FLOW BECOMING ZONAL WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
WAVE BRUSHING THE NORTH. IN CONTRAST...12Z WED ECMWF DUG A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE NORTH AS PER
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...MORE SO ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWFA WHERE THE STORMS IMPACT WILL BE
GREATEST. BUILDING RIDGE PROMISES NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IN FACT...NEXT CHANCE FOR LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS COMES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL
UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JO